Daily Markets: Dollar Consolidates Amid Iran Tensions, Risk Appetite Waxes
United States
The greenback is consolidating in narrow ranges with a slightly firmer bias as traders navigate a complex backdrop of geopolitical tensions and upcoming economic data. Yesterday’s dollar losses recorded during the North American afternoon have been fully reversed following the deterioration in hopes for a negotiated framework between the US and Iran. A drone strike on the UAE, reportedly originating from Iranian proxies based in Iraq, has reignited safe-haven demand for the dollar while simultaneously lifting crude oil prices. Despite this risk-off environment, equities and bonds have managed to post gains, though the upcoming long holiday weekend in the US and UK may be constraining risk appetite as the probability of a direct US military strike on Iran appears to have increased materially.
On the policy front, the incoming Federal Reserve chair will be sworn in today, marking a significant transition in monetary leadership. Additionally, Governor Waller is scheduled to address the economic outlook at 10:00 am ET, providing fresh insight into the Fed’s current assessment of economic conditions. The final University of Michigan consumer confidence report is due today, though this reading typically generates less market reaction than the preliminary survey. Recall that the preliminary results revealed a record low in consumer sentiment at 48.2, a level that did not materialize even during the Great Financial Crisis or the pandemic period. One-year inflation expectations softened in the initial read to 4.5% from 4.7%, while the five-to-ten-year inflation projection slipped to 3.4% from 3.5%. The five-year breakeven inflation rate, calculated as the yield differential between conventional US Treasury yields and inflation-protected securities, stands around 2.65%, up approximately 20 basis points since the onset of the Iran conflict. The ten-year breakeven is slightly below 2.50%, having risen roughly 23 basis points over the same timeframe.
Treasury market liquidity will deteriorate significantly in the North American afternoon as the US Treasury market closes early ahead of the holiday. Traders should anticipate sharply reduced volume and wider bid-ask spreads during the final hours of the session. The US dollar index has held its ground with a modestly firmer undertone, though the narrow consolidation range suggests limited directional conviction ahead of the holiday period.
Eurozone
The euro has come under considerable selling pressure, reaching a new marginal low since April 7 during yesterday’s session in what appeared to be a direct response to stronger-than-expected US May PMI data. Among high-income countries, the eurozone was the only major economy that did not see its currency appreciate against the dollar, underscoring the relative weakness of the common currency. The euro slipped through the critical $1.1580 support area by a few hundredths of a cent before rebounding sharply on reports suggesting that a US-Iran agreement had been reached. This brief rally carried EUR/USD to approximately $1.1630, but the common currency ultimately settled above $1.1600 as hopes for a negotiated settlement proved ephemeral. Following the resurgence of tensions, the euro has resumed its heavier bias and is currently trading within a range bounded by approximately $1.1595 on the downside and $1.1620 on the upside.
The economic backdrop for the eurozone remains mixed. Negotiated wage growth in the eurozone has decelerated materially to 2.46% in the latest quarter from 2.86% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Full-year 2025 negotiated wage growth averaged 2.82%, representing a substantial decline from the approximately 4.5% annual growth rates recorded in the two preceding years. Despite this moderating wage growth, market pricing indicates approximately an 88% probability that the European Central Bank will implement a rate hike next month, suggesting that hawkish policymakers have successfully influenced market expectations. Germany’s May IFO survey provided a modest positive surprise, marking the first improvement in business sentiment since the Middle East conflict began. The current assessment component rose to 86.1 from 85.4, while the expectations component improved to 83.8 from 83.5, with the overall business climate index rising to 84.9 from 84.5. Additionally, Mexico and the European Union are preparing to conclude a new trade agreement, with a summit scheduled to produce the final accord.
United Kingdom
Sterling continues to trade within the ranges established on Wednesday, offering little in the way of obvious directional signals for near-term positioning. The pound opened the week with a test of $1.33, representing its lowest level in more than a month, and subsequently rebounded to nearly $1.3465 on Wednesday. Despite a disappointing retail sales report and the disclosure of the largest budget shortfall in six years, cable is trading with remarkable composure in a narrow quarter-cent range above $1.3415.
The UK retail sales data released this week presented a mixed picture. Including gasoline, April retail sales tumbled by 1.3%, more than double the median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey which had anticipated a 0.6% decline. However, the deterioration was largely attributable to gasoline prices. Excluding fuel, retail sales slipped by only 0.4%, a more modest contraction. It bears noting that unlike most developed economies, the UK reports retail sales in volume terms rather than nominal values. Over the first four months of the year, headline retail sales have risen by an average of only 0.1% on a monthly basis, while the ex-gasoline measure has averaged 0.2% monthly growth. This represents a meaningful deceleration compared to the first four months of the prior year, when both measures averaged approximately 0.4% monthly growth. The UK also reported a budget deficit of GBP24.3 billion in April, the largest monthly shortfall since the pandemic, adding to concerns about fiscal sustainability.
China
The Chinese yuan has come under fresh selling pressure, with the dollar making a marginal new weekly low against the offshore yuan at CNH6.7955. Barring a recovery from current levels, this would mark the sixth weekly loss for the greenback against the yuan over the past eight weeks, underscoring the persistent depreciation trend of the US currency relative to China’s currency. The People’s Bank of China fixed the dollar slightly higher today at CNY6.8373 compared to yesterday’s CNY6.8349, though this modest appreciation does little to alter the broader downtrend. On a weekly basis, the PBOC’s fixing has declined in all but three weeks since the end of September of the prior year, reflecting a consistent policy bias toward yuan strength or at minimum preventing rapid depreciation.
Japan
The Japanese yen has demonstrated considerable resilience despite the substantial interest rate differential that continues to favor dollar-denominated assets. Since the Bank of Japan’s intervention on April 30, the yen has strengthened in only three of the fifteen sessions coming into today, indicating that official support for the dollar has been largely effective in preventing sustained yen appreciation. The dollar reached a new high for the month yesterday near JPY159.35 and has been capped at JPY159.15 today, though it has not traded below JPY158.90, suggesting a relatively stable trading range has established itself.
A critical development for traders monitoring the yen is the narrowing of the US-Japan ten-year yield premium, which is currently hovering near four-year lows at approximately 180 basis points. This represents a dramatic compression from the 290 basis points recorded at the end of May 2025. This narrowing differential reduces the carry advantage of dollar-denominated assets relative to yen-denominated alternatives, potentially making the yen more attractive on a risk-adjusted basis and increasing the likelihood of further yen appreciation if the trend continues.
Japanese capital flows have shifted markedly compared to the prior year. In the first twenty weeks of the current year, Japanese investors have sold approximately JPY3 trillion (roughly $19 billion) of foreign bonds while purchasing JPY1.77 trillion of foreign stocks. This contrasts sharply with the same period in the prior year, when Japanese investors purchased around JPY4.4 trillion of foreign bonds and JPY8 trillion of foreign stocks. Concurrently, foreign investors have been accumulating Japanese assets at an accelerated pace, purchasing JPY7.5 trillion of Japanese bonds and JPY10.7 trillion of Japanese stocks during the first twenty weeks of this year, compared with only JPY4.4 trillion of Japanese bonds and JPY334 billion of Japanese stocks in the equivalent period last year. This reorientation of capital flows suggests a structural shift in international investor positioning.
On the inflation front, Japan reported softer-than-expected April CPI data that disappointed even the most pessimistic economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The headline CPI ticked lower to 1.4% from 1.5%, while the core measure targeted by the Bank of Japan fell to 1.4% from 1.8%. This marks the third consecutive month that the core measure has remained below the BOJ’s target level. The measure that excludes both fresh food and energy has eased for the sixth consecutive month, declining to 1.9% from 2.4% and matching the lowest reading since September 2022. Process food prices eased during the month while energy costs continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace than in March. Rice prices, which surged 98% over the year through April 2025, have appreciated only 0.6% over the past twelve months, indicating that the exceptional agricultural inflation of the prior year is normalizing. Market pricing in the swaption market is consistent with approximately an 80% chance of a rate hike at next month’s BOJ meeting, with the market currently discounting almost two hikes for the full year.
Canada
The Canadian dollar has weakened materially, falling to its lowest level since April 13 yesterday as the greenback reached CAD1.38, the lower end of a resistance band previously identified that extends to approximately CAD1.3815. The US dollar subsequently pulled back and settled slightly below Wednesday’s high near CAD1.3780. The loonie remains under pressure but has held below the CAD1.38 level, suggesting some technical support is preventing further near-term depreciation.
Canadian economic data due today includes March retail sales, with Statistics Canada preliminary indications pointing to a 0.6% increase following a 0.7% rise in February. Excluding auto sales, the median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey is for a 0.9% increase after a 0.5% gain in the prior month. Looking ahead to next week, Canada will report first quarter 2026 GDP figures. The economy contracted by 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025 on an annualized basis, but preliminary indicators suggest the economy has returned to growth in the current quarter.
Australia
The Australian dollar has demonstrated impressive relative strength, rebounding from a test near $0.7100 in the local session to reach new session highs in the New York afternoon yesterday near $0.7165. The $0.7175-$0.7185 area has capped the aussie in recent days, providing a technical ceiling for near-term advances. The aussie is currently trading in a little more than a quarter-cent range above $0.7125 today. Since the Middle East conflict began, only two G10 currencies have appreciated against the dollar: the Norwegian krone, which has gained approximately 3%, and the Australian dollar, which has appreciated roughly 0.65%. This outperformance reflects the commodity-linked nature of the Australian economy and the broad-based strength in commodity prices stemming from geopolitical tensions.
Emerging Markets
The Mexican peso has traded higher as risk appetite improved during the North American afternoon yesterday. The greenback peaked on Wednesday near MXN17.43, just before Moody’s announced a credit downgrade. By late yesterday, the dollar had eased to a new low for the week near MXN17.26. The peso has held above MXN17.2960 today and is trading firmly, though well within yesterday’s range, suggesting consolidation after the recent moves. Mexico is not expected to revise its estimate that the economy contracted by 0.8% quarter-over-quarter in the first quarter of 2026. Although the economy appears to be expanding in the current quarter, the pulse remains weak. The IGAE economic activity report, which functions as a monthly GDP barometer, may show economic stagnation after a 0.11% increase in February.
In India, the central bank’s engineered short squeeze has extended the Indian rupee’s impressive gains, with the dollar slumping to INR95.6850, its lowest level in seven sessions. Estimates of the magnitude of yesterday’s intervention range widely from approximately $2 billion to $5 billion, indicating a substantial commitment to supporting the rupee. This intervention reflects the Reserve Bank of India’s determination to prevent excessive currency depreciation.
Global Markets
Equities have rallied broadly, with the US S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs for the week, setting a positive tone for gains across Asia Pacific and European markets. Nearly all equity markets are trading higher today. The Nikkei led the advance in the Asia Pacific region with a nearly 2.7% surge, while Taiwan’s Taiex followed closely with an almost 2.2% rally. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is rising for the fifth consecutive session, marking the first such streak since November of the prior year. US index futures are approximately 0.2% to 0.3% firmer, suggesting a modestly positive open.
Benchmark ten-year yields are mostly lower, supported by a pullback in crude oil prices and yesterday’s rally in the US ten-year Treasury. The US ten-year Treasury yield fell to 4.55%, establishing a new low for the week. European yields have declined 4 to 6 basis points, with the ten-year Gilts yield posting the largest weekly decline at 19 basis points. The US ten-year yield is off approximately 4 basis points for the week, while the 2.5 basis point rise in the ten-year Japanese Government Bond represents an outlier in the broader global yield environment.
Precious metals are exhibiting consolidation patterns with slightly softer undertones. Gold dipped below the $4,500 support level for the fourth time this week yesterday but recovered on the back of the broader rally in risk assets and settled above the previous session’s high for the first time in a couple of weeks. A move above the week’s high, seen Tuesday near $4,589, would lift the technical tone considerably. Silver has been firmer, with the week’s high established on Tuesday slightly below $79. That level represents the immediate technical hurdle for further silver appreciation. Both metals are consolidating with a slightly softer bias so far today.
Crude oil has been volatile, reflecting the shifting geopolitical backdrop. July WTI was sold yesterday during the North American afternoon on optimism that a preliminary agreement had been struck between the US and Iran. This selling marked the third consecutive declining session, matching the longest losing streak since the Middle East conflict began. July WTI fell to almost $95.76, a five-day low, and briefly traded below the twenty-day moving average, which is currently around $97 today, for the first time in two weeks. However, contradictory reports regarding the Iran negotiations have prompted a recovery in crude prices. July WTI reached almost $99.45 earlier but is pulling back ahead of the North American open and is probing the $98 area late in the European morning, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding diplomatic developments.
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“title”: “Daily Markets: Dollar Consolidates Amid Iran Tensions, Risk Appetite Waxes”,
“content”: “
United States
The greenback is consolidating in narrow ranges with a slightly firmer bias as traders navigate a complex backdrop of geopolitical tensions and upcoming economic data. Yesterday’s dollar losses recorded during the North American afternoon have been fully reversed following the deterioration in hopes for a negotiated framework between the US and Iran. A drone strike on the UAE, reportedly originating from Iranian proxies based in Iraq, has reignited safe-haven demand for the dollar while simultaneously lifting crude oil prices. Despite this risk-off environment, equities and bonds have managed to post gains, though the upcoming long holiday weekend in the US and UK may be constraining risk appetite as the probability of a direct US military strike on Iran appears to have increased materially.
On the policy front, the incoming Federal Reserve chair will be sworn in today, marking a significant transition in monetary leadership. Additionally, Governor Waller is scheduled to address the economic outlook at 10:00 am ET, providing fresh insight into the Fed’s current assessment of economic conditions. The final University of Michigan consumer confidence report is due today, though this reading typically generates less market reaction than the preliminary survey. Recall that the preliminary results revealed a record low in consumer sentiment at 48.2, a level that did not materialize even during the Great Financial Crisis or the pandemic period. One-year inflation expectations softened in the initial read to 4.5% from 4.7%, while the five-to-ten-year inflation projection slipped to 3.4% from 3.5%. The five-year breakeven inflation rate, calculated as the yield differential between conventional US Treasury yields and inflation-protected securities, stands around 2.65%, up approximately 20 basis points since the onset of the Iran conflict. The ten-year breakeven is slightly below 2.50%, having risen roughly 23 basis points over the same timeframe.
Treasury market liquidity will deteriorate significantly in the North American afternoon as the US Treasury market closes early ahead of the holiday. Traders should anticipate sharply reduced volume and wider bid-ask spreads during the final hours of the session. The US dollar index has held its ground with a modestly firmer undertone, though the narrow consolidation range suggests limited directional conviction ahead of the holiday period.
Eurozone
The euro has come under considerable selling pressure, reaching a new marginal low since April 7 during yesterday’s session in what appeared to be a direct response to stronger-than-expected US May PMI data. Among high-income countries, the eurozone was the only major economy that did not see its currency appreciate against the dollar, underscoring the relative weakness of the common currency. The euro slipped through the critical $1.1580 support area by a few hundredths of a cent before rebounding sharply on reports suggesting that a US-Iran agreement had been reached. This brief rally carried EUR/USD to approximately $1.1630, but the common currency ultimately settled above $1.1600 as hopes for a negotiated settlement proved ephemeral. Following the resurgence of tensions, the euro has resumed its heavier bias and is currently trading within a range bounded by approximately $1.1595 on the downside and $1.1620 on the upside.
The economic backdrop for the eurozone remains mixed. Negotiated wage growth in the eurozone has decelerated materially to 2.46% in the latest quarter from 2.86% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Full-year 2025 negotiated wage growth averaged 2.82%, representing a substantial decline from the approximately 4.5% annual growth rates recorded in the two preceding years. Despite this moderating wage growth, market pricing indicates approximately an 88% probability that the European Central Bank will implement a rate hike next month, suggesting that hawkish policymakers have successfully influenced market expectations. Germany’s May IFO survey provided a modest positive surprise, marking the first improvement in business sentiment since the Middle East conflict began. The current assessment component rose to 86.1 from 85.4, while the expectations component improved to 83.8 from 83.5, with the overall business climate index rising to 84.9 from 84.5. Additionally, Mexico and the European Union are preparing to conclude a new trade agreement, with a summit scheduled to produce the final accord.
United Kingdom
Sterling continues to trade within the ranges established on Wednesday, offering little in the way of obvious directional signals for near-term positioning. The pound opened the week with a test of $1.33, representing its lowest level in more than a month, and subsequently rebounded to nearly $1.3465 on Wednesday. Despite a disappointing retail sales report and the disclosure of the largest budget shortfall in six years, cable is trading with remarkable composure in a narrow quarter-cent range above $1.3415.
The UK retail sales data released this week presented a mixed picture. Including gasoline, April retail sales tumbled by 1.3%, more than double the median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey which had anticipated a 0.6% decline. However, the deterioration was largely attributable to gasoline prices. Excluding fuel, retail sales slipped by only 0.4%, a more modest contraction. It bears noting that unlike most developed economies, the UK reports retail sales in volume terms rather than nominal values. Over the first four months of the year, headline retail sales have risen by an average of only 0.1% on a monthly basis, while the ex-gasoline measure has averaged 0.2% monthly growth. This represents a meaningful deceleration compared to the first four months of the prior year, when both measures averaged approximately 0.4% monthly growth. The UK also reported a budget deficit of GBP24.3 billion in April, the largest monthly shortfall since the pandemic, adding to concerns about fiscal sustainability.
China
The Chinese yuan has come under fresh selling pressure, with the dollar making a marginal new weekly low against the offshore yuan at CNH6.7955. Barring a recovery from current levels, this would mark the sixth weekly loss for the greenback against the yuan over the past eight weeks, underscoring the persistent depreciation trend of the US currency relative to China’s currency. The People’s Bank of China fixed the dollar slightly higher today at CNY6.8373 compared to yesterday’s CNY6.8349, though this modest appreciation does little to alter the broader downtrend. On a weekly basis, the PBOC’s fixing has declined in all but three weeks since the end of September of the prior year, reflecting a consistent policy bias toward yuan strength or at minimum preventing rapid depreciation.
Japan
The Japanese yen has demonstrated considerable resilience despite the substantial interest rate differential that continues to favor dollar-denominated assets. Since the Bank of Japan’s intervention on April 30, the yen has strengthened in only three of the fifteen sessions coming into today, indicating that official support for the dollar has been largely effective in preventing sustained yen appreciation. The dollar reached a new high for the month yesterday near JPY159.35 and has been capped at JPY159.15 today, though it has not traded below JPY158.90, suggesting a relatively stable trading range has established itself.
A critical development for traders monitoring the yen is the narrowing of the US-Japan ten-year yield premium, which is currently hovering near four-year lows at approximately 180 basis points. This represents a dramatic compression from the 290 basis points recorded at the end of May 2025. This narrowing differential reduces the carry advantage of dollar-denominated assets relative to yen-denominated alternatives, potentially making the yen more attractive on a risk-adjusted basis and increasing the likelihood of further yen appreciation if the trend continues.
Japanese capital flows have shifted markedly compared to the prior year. In the first twenty weeks of the current year, Japanese investors have sold approximately JPY3 trillion (roughly $19 billion) of foreign bonds while purchasing JPY1.77 trillion of foreign stocks. This contrasts sharply with the same period in the prior year, when Japanese investors purchased around JPY4.4 trillion of foreign bonds and JPY8 trillion of foreign stocks. Concurrently, foreign investors have been accumulating Japanese assets at an accelerated pace, purchasing JPY7.5 trillion of Japanese bonds and JPY10.7 trillion of Japanese stocks during the first twenty weeks of this year, compared with only JPY4.4 trillion of Japanese bonds and JPY334 billion of Japanese stocks in the equivalent period last year. This reorientation of capital flows suggests a structural shift in international investor positioning.
On the inflation front, Japan reported softer-than-expected April CPI data that disappointed even the most pessimistic economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The headline CPI ticked lower to 1.4% from 1.5%, while the core measure targeted by the Bank of Japan fell to 1.4% from 1.8%. This marks the third consecutive month that the core measure has remained below the BOJ’s target level. The measure that excludes both fresh food and energy has eased for the sixth consecutive month, declining to 1.9% from 2.4% and matching the lowest reading since September 2022. Process food prices eased during the month while energy costs continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace than in March. Rice prices, which surged 98% over the year through April 2025, have appreciated only 0.6% over the past twelve months, indicating that the exceptional agricultural inflation of the prior year is normalizing. Market pricing in the swaption market is consistent with approximately an 80% chance of a rate hike at next month’s BOJ meeting, with the market currently discounting almost two hikes for the full year.
Canada
The Canadian dollar has weakened materially, falling to its lowest level since April 13 yesterday as the greenback reached CAD1.38, the lower end of a resistance band previously identified that extends to approximately CAD1.3815. The US dollar subsequently pulled back and settled slightly below Wednesday’s high near CAD1.3780. The loonie remains under pressure but has held below the CAD1.38 level, suggesting some technical support is preventing further near-term depreciation.
Canadian economic data due today includes March retail sales, with Statistics Canada preliminary indications pointing to a 0.6% increase following a 0.7% rise in February. Excluding auto sales, the median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey is for a 0.9% increase after a 0.5% gain in the prior month. Looking ahead to next week, Canada will report first quarter 2026 GDP figures. The economy contracted by 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025 on an annualized basis, but preliminary indicators suggest the economy has returned to growth in the current quarter.
Australia
The Australian dollar has demonstrated impressive relative strength, rebounding from a test near $0.7100 in the local session to reach new session highs in the New York afternoon yesterday near $0.7165. The $0.7175-$0.7185 area has capped the aussie in recent days, providing a technical ceiling for near-term advances. The aussie is currently trading in a little more than a quarter-cent range above $0.7125 today. Since the Middle East conflict began, only two G10 currencies have appreciated against the dollar: the Norwegian krone, which has gained approximately 3%, and the Australian dollar, which has appreciated roughly 0.65%. This outperformance reflects the commodity-linked nature of the Australian economy and the broad-based strength in commodity prices stemming from geopolitical tensions.
Emerging Markets
The Mexican peso has traded higher as risk appetite improved during the North American afternoon yesterday. The greenback peaked on Wednesday near MXN17.43, just before Moody’s announced a credit downgrade. By late yesterday, the dollar had eased to a new low for the week near MXN17.26. The peso has held above MXN17.2960 today and is trading firmly, though well within yesterday’s range, suggesting consolidation after the recent moves. Mexico is not expected to revise its estimate that the economy contracted by 0.8% quarter-over-quarter in the first quarter of 2026. Although the economy appears to be expanding in the current quarter, the pulse remains weak. The IGAE economic activity report, which functions as a monthly GDP barometer, may show economic stagnation after a 0.11% increase in February.
In India, the central bank’s engineered short squeeze has extended the Indian rupee’s impressive gains, with the dollar slumping to INR95.6850, its lowest level in seven sessions. Estimates of the magnitude of yesterday’s intervention range widely from approximately $2 billion to $5 billion, indicating a substantial commitment to supporting the rupee. This intervention reflects the Reserve Bank of India’s determination to prevent excessive currency depreciation.
Global Markets
Equities have rallied broadly, with the US S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs for the week, setting a positive tone for gains across Asia Pacific and European markets. Nearly all equity markets are trading higher today. The Nikkei led the advance in the Asia Pacific region with a nearly 2.7% surge, while Taiwan’s Taiex followed closely with an almost 2.2% rally. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is rising for the fifth consecutive session, marking the first such streak since November of the prior year. US index futures are approximately 0.2% to 0.3% firmer, suggesting a modestly positive open.
Benchmark ten-year yields are mostly lower, supported by a pullback in crude oil prices and yesterday’s rally in the US ten-year Treasury. The US ten-year Treasury yield fell to 4.55%, establishing a new low for the week. European yields have declined 4 to 6 basis points, with the ten-year Gilts yield posting the largest weekly decline at 19 basis points. The US ten-year yield is off approximately 4 basis points for the week, while the 2.5 basis point rise in the ten-year Japanese Government Bond represents an outlier in the broader global yield environment.
Precious metals are exhibiting consolidation patterns with slightly softer undertones. Gold dipped below the $4,500 support level for the fourth time this week yesterday but recovered on the back of the broader rally in risk assets and settled above the previous session’s high for the first time in a couple of weeks. A move above the week’s high, seen Tuesday near $4,589, would lift the technical tone considerably. Silver has been firmer, with the week’s high established on Tuesday slightly below $79. That level represents the immediate technical hurdle for further silver appreciation. Both metals are consolidating with a slightly softer bias so far today.
Crude oil has been volatile, reflecting the shifting geopolitical backdrop. July WTI was sold yesterday during the North American afternoon on optimism that a preliminary agreement had been struck between the US and Iran. This selling marked the third consecutive declining session, matching the longest losing streak since the Middle East conflict began. July WTI fell to almost $95.76, a five-day low, and briefly traded below the twenty-day moving average, which is currently around $97 today, for the first time in two weeks. However, contradictory reports regarding the Iran negotiations have prompted a recovery in crude prices. July WTI reached almost $99.45 earlier but is pulling back ahead of the North American open and is probing the $98 area late in the European morning, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding diplomatic developments.
