Last week, the U.S. dollar experienced a decline against all G10 currencies. The dollar-bloc currencies, along with sterling and the Scandis, took the lead in this movement. showing appreciation ranging from approximately 0.55% to 1.40% against U.S. dollar. Prior to the weekend, both the dollar bloc and sterling achieved new monthly highs. While the dollar spent a significant portion of the week consolidating against other currencies, following the extension of its recent losses at the week’s outset, our analysis of …
Ay: Kasım 2023
Industrial policy has risen to prominence on the national agenda in the U.S. and other advanced industrial economies. This marks a significant departure from recent economic trends and has reignited a longstanding debate in which we were both actively engaged over three decades ago. In the U.S., the CHIPS and Science Act, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act have established noteworthy national security and climate objectives. Each of these acts utilizes subsidies, tax credits, loan guarantees, …
The blend of subdued US price data and generally weaker economic indicators supports the notion of a fresh economic convergence. The economic reports from Europe, Japan, and China are not particularly encouraging. Instead, this convergence is propelled by the anticipated deceleration of the world’s largest economy. This new alignment has a negative impact on the dollar. Our cautious working assumption remains that the gains made by the US dollar since mid-July are undergoing a retracement. While we suspect more than …
Recent patterns and advancements, ranging from conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine to the competition between the United States and China, could signal a significant global geopolitical shift. The possibility of a prolonged confrontation between the Western nations and their adversaries, notably China, Russia and Islamic World, is becoming increasingly prominent. The ongoing crises, conflicts, and wars underscore the significant transformation of the geopolitical landscape in recent years, with a resurgence of great-power rivalries taking center stage in international relations. The …
The recent fluctuations in the value of the US dollar appear closely tied to changes in US interest rates. Following the FOMC meeting and the release of October jobs report, the 2Y Treasury Yield experienced a notable decline of 17 basis points, resulting in a broad decrease in the value of US dollar. This decline was particularly pronounced against various currency pairs, with the dollar approaching three standard deviations below it’s 20 day moving average. Initially perceived as a minor …
Last week may have marked are reversal point. Despite Chair Powell’s assertion that the Fed did not adopt a policy bias favoring easing and reiterated the absence of discussions regarding rate cuts, the market appears to hold a different view. The implied yield of the December 2024 Fed funds futures contract is approximately 4.45%, indicating that the market is factoring in not only the two cuts projected by the Fed in September but also the likelihood of a third cut, …