United States Recent US economic data has surpassed expectations, projecting a GDP growth of around 3% for Q4. With the guidance from Federal Reserve member Christopher Waller, speculation is building around a potential rate cut in the first half of the year, potentially as soon as the June FOMC meeting. As Martin Luther King Jr. Day approaches, marking the start of the week, the economic calendar features the preliminary January PMI, regional Fed surveys, and existing home sales data. President …
Month: January 2025
### United States The US dollar is holding firm against most G10 currencies, indicating a mood of consolidation in the markets. With Trump’s inauguration set for Monday and US markets closed for Martin Luther King Day, there is anticipation of immediate actions post-inauguration. While the yen has pared some of yesterday’s gains, the market is on edge for a possible BOJ rate hike next week. In the US, retail sales data impacted the Dollar Index, which reached session highs before …
### United States Following the release of both U.S. inflation indicators, attention is turning to real sector data over the next couple of days and the confirmation hearing for the Treasury Secretary nominee. The dollar shows mixed performance today—firmer against currencies like the euro, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen, but weighed down by softer than anticipated core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. This unexpected CPI softness resulted in an extension of the dollar’s pullback, with the Dollar Index slipping to …
### United States The US dollar is experiencing minimal changes across the G10 currencies but is slightly weaker overall. Comments from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda have shaken markets, sending the yen to its best level since January 6. In the US, the focus is on consumer prices, with yesterday’s PPI data showing slightly softer results than expected, although components key to the PCE deflator were firm. Equity markets are mostly up, but Asia-Pacific markets were mixed, with China, South …
United States The dollar’s fluctuating market sentiment saw it peaking early in the recent trading session, influenced by reports on a potential staged implementation of US tariffs, diverging from initial indications of significant 10-20% tariffs. This shift is compounded by derivatives market movements which now anticipate the next Federal Reserve cut in October, showcasing a blend of speculative correction and extensive market news absorption. Despite this, inflation metrics like the US PPI and CPI reports remain focal points, with expectations …
### United States The US dollar has shown strong performance across the board, although it’s encountering some resistance from the Japanese yen as investors anticipate a key speech from the BOJ deputy governor. The British pound remains the weakest among G10 currencies. Interestingly, Fed funds futures suggest that the market no longer fully expects a single Fed rate hike this year, with the first rate cut anticipated by mid-2026. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields are affecting global rates, with the 10-year …
### United States The US employment report surpassed expectations, reinforcing the notion of “American exceptionalism” and driving the dollar to new heights against most G10 currencies. As a result, derivatives markets have postponed the anticipated Fed rate cut to September. By that time, the swaps market anticipates a 100-bps cut by the European Central Bank, a 40-bps cut by the Bank of England, and nearly a 50-bps cut by the Bank of Canada, while projecting a 40-bps increase by the …
# United States The US dollar is experiencing mixed movements as we head into the crucial employment report, which is expected to shape market sentiment. Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials underscore the significant hurdles that a rate cut would have to surpass this month. The next employment report will also feature the annual benchmark revisions. Sterling has been volatile, stabilizing recently but still down nearly 1% this week, marking it as the poorest performer in the G10. Contrarily, the …
# United States The US dollar is showing a broader robustness today. Despite the US stock market being closed for President Carter’s funeral, the dollar remains firm in the face of lower US 10-year yields, especially following weaker-than-expected ADP jobs data. The Dollar Index hovers near 109.00, reflecting a technical retracement from previous losses, with a psychological target around 110.00-111.00 in the near future contingent on upcoming economic reports influencing Federal Reserve expectations. At the same time, US index futures …
## United States The US dollar is showing strength recently, driven by a positive economic outlook influenced by stronger-than-expected JOLTS and ISM reports. The new US administration’s assertive actions under Trump, such as contemplating military force to secure Greenland or Panama and possibly absorbing Canada, showcase a disruptive strategy. Demanding increased military spending from NATO members, even beyond US capabilities, alongside renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, highlights an aggressive stance. These moves might distract from …