# United States
A brewing consolidative tone in the foreign exchange market anticipates a series of pivotal events this week. These include the US Q3 GDP announcement, the private sector jobs estimate from ADP, and the US Treasury’s quarterly refunding. The US labor market’s focal point is the forthcoming nonfarm payroll report, with the September JOLTS indicating a potential softening of the labor market. Economists also await the September goods trade and inventory data to refine GDP forecasts, following housing price updates and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey. The dollar has traded above CAD1.39 recently but lacked momentum, suggesting possible support near CAD1.3850 and minor resistance slipping through to CAD1.3880.
# Eurozone
As the week kicks off, attention turns to pivotal economic indicators in the Eurozone. The Q3 GDP data raises concerns about overall growth, with a predicted stagnation at 0.2%, mirroring Q2 metrics. Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, is teetering on the brink of its second consecutive contraction. Meanwhile, France, Italy, and Spain display various degrees of growth resilience. The Euro hovers above $1.08, a rare occurrence over the past six sessions, yet faces upward resistance ahead of potential gains that could bolster its technical outlook.
# United Kingdom
Market participants eagerly await the UK’s Autumn budget and its implications for the wider economy. The budget is expected to encompass a combination of tax increases and enhanced government spending. Chancellor Reeves’s projections point towards a declining deficit concerning public sector liabilities. After a turbulent trading day, sterling exhibited signs of recovery, although it remains tethered below the psychological $1.30 mark. Notably, sterling’s options totaling GBP780 million are poised to expire shortly.
# China
Market dynamics portray rising US rates and a declining yen as exerting pressure on the yuan. The US dollar approached CNH7.15, marking its highest point since September 19, and further breached CNH7.1640. Currently, near-term forecasts suggest a potential escalation towards the CNH7.18-CNH7.20 range. Additionally, the People’s Bank of China’s reference rate stands at CNY7.1283, showcasing slight readjustments from its previous position.
# Japan
Japan’s political landscape is poised for an intriguing 30-day cycle, as the Lower House prepares for a pivotal vote on the new Prime Minister, slated for November 26. The fragmented opposition seems ill-equipped to seize control, likely resulting in an LDP-Komeito minority government requiring external support for policy initiatives. While monetary policy remains undisturbed with no rate changes anticipated, political pressures advocate for robust fiscal intervention. Recently, Japan’s unemployment rate declined to 2.4%—a marginal improvement accompanied by an increase in the job-to-applicant ratio to 1.24. Meanwhile, the dollar made noteworthy fluctuations against the yen, demonstrating resilience as sellers emerge in Europe.
# Canada
Amid a relatively low-profile economic calendar, the focus pivots to the dollar’s behavior against the Canadian dollar. After breaching CAD1.39, the US dollar experienced restrained movement within narrow boundaries around CAD1.3880-CAD1.3900. Early trades indicated a minor price retrenchment below CAD1.3880, hinting at potential support near CAD1.3850 and further below at CAD1.3815.
# Australia
Anticipation builds around the upcoming Q3 CPI report, with an anticipated quarterly increase of 0.3% potentially easing year-over-year inflation rates to 2.9%. The futures market suggests a subdued probability of interest rate cuts, remaining unanticipated in next week’s meeting with a marginal chance by December. Interestingly, the first meeting in 2025 shows a 65% probability of a cut. The Australian dollar grapples with maintaining momentum, finding interim bids near $0.6560 after surpassing its previous retracement objective.
# Mexico
Mexico’s economic narrative centers on the forthcoming Q3 GDP release, framed by Bloomberg’s survey projecting 0.7% quarterly growth. Recently, the peso benefited from a favorable trade deficit report, diverging from median forecasts, prompting settled trades above MXN20.00. Nevertheless, future forecasts remain tempered, positioned closer to prior resistance points as the market assimilates incoming data.
